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## Chapter 4 - Day 10

##### Learning Targets
• Explain the concept of sampling variability when making an inference about a population and how sample size affects sampling variability.

• Explain the meaning of statistically significant in the context of an experiment and use simulation to determine if the results of an experiment are statistically significant.

##### Resumes:

We actually covered the first learning target when we did the Does Beyonce Write Her Own Lyrics activity. We reminded students about the impact of sample size on the sampling variability by referring back to the posters of dot plots we created in the activity. Now to address the second learning target.

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For this lesson, you will need each student to have a one index card for each student in the class (you could also cut them if you want to be efficient). Each student would need to write down the ratings for each of the candidates so they can perform the simulation.

##### Preparing for Inference

We are planting some seeds here that we will come back to when we get to formal significance testing later in the course.

(1) Hypotheses.

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Begin by asking the students why there is a difference in mean ratings between John and Jenn. Students can determine two major themes: (1) The difference between them happened just by chance or (2) the name played a role in there being a difference.  These will later become our null and alternative hypotheses for a significance test.

(2) Some evidence versus convincing evidence.

Help students to recognize that there is some evidence that gender discrimination did occur. After all, one of the candidates is going to end up coming out higher than the other (most likely at least).  The question is whether or not the difference is large enough to say we have convincing evidence.  For more discussion on this topic, read this blog post from Josh Tabor.

(3) P-value.

Question #3 in the activity is asking students to estimate and interpret a P-value. The P-value is the holy grail of AP Statistics.

##### Luke's Lesson Notes

Here is a brief video highlighting some key information to help you prepare to teach this lesson.

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